2021 Golden Globe Predictions from Guest Editor Jack Mahanes
Golden-Globe-Awards-2021-Posters
This Sunday is the 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards. The 87 international journalists of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) vote on their favorites in film and TV. Although this year will be virtual, with Tina Fey hosting from New York and Amy Poehler hosting from Los Angeles, it's a night for big stars to come together. The Golden Globes is the first significant precursor leading up to the Academy Awards. If you want to win your family's Golden Globe betting pool, I have done my research, and here is who I think you should bet on.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
There are many viable contenders here. However, they've gone with the more mainstream hits in this category in the last few years. While Nomadland could win it, it just seems like The Trial of the Chicago 7 has everything the HFPA loves. A crowd-pleasing film with big-name stars. Promising Young Woman could be a surprise winner after it over-performed expectations with nominations. Still, this feels like Chicago 7 has this in the bag.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Riz Ahmed: Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins: The Father
Gary Oldman: Mank
Tahar Rahim: The Mauritanian
From the moment Ma Rainey's Black Bottom premiered, Chadwick Boseman was destined to sweep all the major awards this season. Even if he were still alive, he'd win this. It's an amazing theatrical performance all the Hollywood groups, including the HFPA, love. While Anthony Hopkins has the potential to pull off an upset because he's never won a competitive Golden Globe, that's highly unlikely. This is Boseman's award to lose.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Viola Davis: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day: The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby: Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand: Nomadland
Carey Mulligan: Promising Young Woman
This year, the most talked-about performance has been from Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman. The morning of the nomination announcement, Promising Young Woman exceeded expectations and received nominations for Best Film - Drama, Best Director, and Best Screenplay in addition to Mulligan. While Viola Davis and Frances McDormand are viable contenders, expect them to award the film here.
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Music
Palm Springs
The Prom
Don't laugh-actually do-I think this is virtually a done deal. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm got three nominations, the others underperformed in a way. Hamilton could conceivably win, but the fact that it's not an actual film could hurt. The first Borat was nominated in this category and lost to Dreamgirls, but this year Borat Subsequent Moviefilm will win here.
Predicted Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Performance in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden: The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda: Hamilton
Dev Petel: The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg: Palm Springs
Sacha Baron Cohen will probably take this for reprising his signature character Borat for which he won this category back in 2007. However, Lin-Manuel Miranda and Andy Samberg are conceivably in the running for an upset.
Predicted Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen
Best Performance win a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson: Music
Michelle Pfeiffer: French Exit
Rosamund Pike: I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy: Emma
Maria Bakalova. End of story. She's the only real Oscar contender here. She's competing in supporting everywhere else. Given that there's no viable competition here, she'll win this easily for her scene-stealing performance as Borat's daughter Tutar in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Predicted Winner: Maria Bakalova
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture – Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya: Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto: The Little Things
Bill Murray: On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr.: One Night in Miami
Tough call. It's a 3-way race between Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, and Leslie Odom Jr. However, Kaluuya undoubtedly has the most dramatic role in this category, which the HFPA loves, so he's probably the safe bet. However, Odom Jr. could easily win for his portrayal of the iconic Sam Cooke, and Baron Cohen could benefit from a good night for The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture – Actress
Glenn Close: Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman: The Father
Jodie Foster: The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried: Mank
Helena Zengel: News of the World
This is another tough category to predict. However, this category looks lined up perfectly for Glenn Close. Olivia Colman has won 3 times already, and a 4th right now might seem a little too much. Amanda Seyfried is good in Mank, but her performance is too subtle and small for her to win. Jodie Foster is someone the HFPA will always nominate to get her to come to the ceremony. Finally, it's rare for the Globes to give this award to a child star unless their film is the Best Film contender, so it's unlikely for Helena Zengel to prevail. Close has the physical transformation into a real-life person and the de-glam, which Hollywood groups like the HFPA go crazy over. Expect her to pull this one off.
Predicted Winner: Glenn Close
Best Director
Emerald Fennell: Promising Young Woman
David Fincher: Mank
Regina King: One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao: Nomadland
From the moment Nomadland premiered in Venice, Zhao has had this award locked up. Look for her to win here to start her march to becoming the 2nd woman to win an Oscar for Directing this April.
Predicted Winner: Chloé Zhao
Best Screenplay
Emerald Fennell: Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher: Mank
Aaron Sorkin: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton: The Father
Chloé Zhao: Nomadland
The HFPA loves Aaron Sorkin. He's won this category twice before for The Social Network and Steve Jobs. While Emerald Fennell can win this, given The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a major contender to win Best Picture at the Oscars, look for Sorkin to win his 3rd Golden Globe here.
Predicted Winner: Aaron Sorkin
You can download the official ballot at: https://www.thegoldknight.com/2021/02/2021-golden-globe-awards-printable.html
The Oscars nominations are out March 15th. Look for my Oscar predictions before the broadcast on April 25th. -Jack
