Jack Mahanes Predicts 93rd Annual Academy Awards

This Sunday, the 93rd annual Academy Awards will be held at the Union Station in Los Angeles, California. The four significant precursors, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, The Guilds, and BAFTA, have all weighed in, which this year helps tell us who’s going to win (except for one major category). If you’re planning on betting on the Academy Awards, allow me to guide you on who you should choose to win your pool.

BEST PICTURE:

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

It’s always tricky to predict this category with the preferential ballot. Usually, if there’s the passion pick alternative, that wins. So while Nomadland has won Best Picture at all the major awards (Golden Globe, Critics Choice, PGA, BAFTA), all those wins except PGA were plurality voting. Under the preferential ballot, it may fall short. While some in the Academy will love the artistry that went into this film, others will be turned off by its slow-burn pace (especially if they watch it at home and not in theaters). The Trial of the Chicago 7, on the other hand, will play really well whichever way you see it. It also won SAG Ensemble, which means the actors, the largest branch of the Academy, will likely rank it either 1st or 2nd or 3rd on their ballots, putting it in the perfect position to win the biggest prize of the night.

Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ACTOR:

Riz Ahmed: Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Anthony Hopkins: The Father

Gary Oldman: Mank

Steven Yeun: Minari

The late great Chadwick Boseman has been honored posthumously this season. He was awarded the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG for his brilliant final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. So his chances of winning are looking very good going into the Oscars. However, Anthony Hopkins took the BAFTA, which isn’t a surprise given that he’s British and the British Academy votes on that. But The Father over-performed with the Oscar nominations and even got a Best Picture nomination, whereas Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was snubbed there. Still, the overall significant support and narrative for Boseman may be probably too hard to overcome.

Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman

BEST ACTRESS:

Viola Davis: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day: The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby: Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand: Nomadland

Carey Mulligan: Promising Young Woman

This is by far the toughest category to predict of the night. All of the nominees except for Vanessa Kirby have won each of the major precursors. So everyone is in with a chance except for Kirby. In this category, you may just have to weigh the pros and cons. Golden Globe winner Andra Day is playing a famous real-life person in Billie Holiday, which the Academy loves. Still, she wasn’t even nominated for SAG and BAFTA, and she was the film’s only nomination. It’s very hard to pull off a win with those setbacks unless you’re a respected veteran, and this is her major acting debut. SAG winner Viola Davis is also playing a famous real-life person as the title character of her movie, but given her film missed Best Picture and Boseman is heavily primed to win, it’s doubtful Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will win both lead acting awards. Finally, BAFTA winner Frances McDormand is the star of the Best Picture frontrunner. But given that she’s won two Oscars already and her performance is very subdued, not the performance that usually prevails at the Oscars, it might be too much of an uphill climb for her. That leaves us with Critics Choice winner Carey Mulligan. Promising Young Woman got every key nomination needed (Picture, Acting, Directing, Writing, and Editing). While she’s lost every major precursor except for Critics Choice, she might very well pull it off in the end based on how the category lined up and the broad support for the film. And keep in mind, the whole Academy votes on the winner.

Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Sacha Baron Cohen: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya: Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr.: One Night in Miami

Paul Raci: Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield: Judas and the Black Messiah

Daniel Kaluuya is the biggest lock of the four acting categories. He’s swept the season by winning the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA for his brilliant portrayal of former Illinois Chairman of the Black Panther Party Fred Hampton. Given that he’s the only actor who’s won all the major precursors and Judas and the Black Messiah has six nominations, including Best Picture, you can bet the farm on Kaluuya collecting the gold this Sunday night.

Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Maria Bakalova: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close: Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman: The Father

Amanda Seyfried: Mank

Yuh-Jung Youn: Minari

This category had an unclear frontrunner for the longest time. Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) won the Golden Globe and missed the Oscar nomination. Maria Bakalova was seen as a significant contender after winning the Critics Choice. But then, Yuh-Jung Youn won both SAG and BAFTA, both voted on by the industry, for playing the loving grandmother in Minari. Minari is a well-loved film, and Youn will be the winner for the film. This, unfortunately, means Glenn Close will extend her record to eight nominations with no wins.

Predicted Winner: Yuh-Jung Youn

BEST DIRECTOR:

Thomas Vinterberg: Another Round

David Fincher: Mank

Lee Isaac Chung: Minari

Chloé Zhao: Nomadland

Emerald Fennell: Promising Young Woman

Chloé Zhao has won every Director prize, from the prior ceremonies such as the DGA to most critics groups. Even if Nomadland loses Best Picture, Zhao has this category in the bag. This would make her the first woman of color to win this category and the second woman in history to win this category after Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker 11 years ago.

Predicted Winner: Chloé Zhao

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Will Berson and Shaka King: Judas and the Black Messiah

Lee Isaac Chung: Minari

Emerald Fennell: Promising Young Woman

Darius Marder and Abraham Marder: Sound of Metal

Aaron Sorkin: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Aaron Sorkin won the Golden Globe last February for his brilliantly written screenplay for The Trial of the Chicago 7. However, Emerald Fennell then won the Critics Choice, WGA, and BAFTA for her thrilling screenplay for Promising Young Woman. Promising Young Woman fits the mold of the type of film that usually wins this category, the suspenseful story with the twist. The Crying Game, Get Out, and last year’s winner Parasite are perfect examples. Even though Fennell won’t win Director, this will be her prize for her very popular film.

Predicted Winner: Emerald Fennell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimmer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, and Lee Kern: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller: The Father

Chloé Zhao: Nomadland

Kemp Powers: One Night in Miami

Ramin Bahrani: The White Tiger

This is a race between The Father and Nomadland. Neither was eligible for WGA resulting in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm taking the prize there. Nomadland took the Critics Choice while The Father won the BAFTA. However, The Father is a dialogue-driven movie, whereas there’s no heavy dialogue in Nomadland. The latter is more of a director’s film than a writer’s movie. Because of this, look for The Father to win here.

Predicted Winner: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

Good luck!

Jack